Exploring the Critical Decline in Water Supply and its Implications for Agriculture and Security
Pakistan Water Crisis
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| Head Marala, Pakistan as on June 8,2025 |
The water crisis in Pakistan's Indus basin has reached a critical point. Recent Pakistani data reveals a significant 15% decline in water releases from key dams compared to the same period last year. This steep drop has brought major reservoirs dangerously close to their dead storage levels, underscoring the urgent need for action.
Official communication freeze between the two sides following the recent Pahalgam terror attack and India’s Operation Sindoor.
On June 5, the total water released in Pakistan's Punjab was 1.24 lakh cusecs, down from 1.44 lakh cusecs recorded on the same date in the previous year. At Tarbela dam in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the water level stood at 1,465 metres, just above the dead level of 1,402 metres.
The Chasma dam on the Indus in Punjab was at 644 metres, close to its dead level of 638 metres. At the Mangla dam on the Jhelum in Mirpur, the level dropped to 1,163 metres, nearing its 1,050-metre threshold.
The situation is particularly grave at Marala in Sialkot, where the Chenab River's mean discharge fell dramatically from 26,645 cusecs on May 28 to just 3,064 cusecs by June 5, the report said. Below the dead level, water cannot be drained from a reservoir by gravity, making these drops operationally critical.
The situation in Pakistan is dire, especially for the late Kharif season from June to September. With a projected water shortage of 21% or more by June 10, the shortfall poses a significant risk to agricultural output in Punjab, the country's food basket, creating an imminent threat to food security.
Compounding the water stress, a severe heatwave is forecast across large parts of Pakistan starting June 8, with daytime temperatures expected to rise 5 to 7°C above normal across central and upper Punjab, Islamabad, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
India formally communicated its decision to hold the treaty in abeyance to Pakistan on April 24. Ever since India suspended the Indus Waters Treaty, Pakistan has written to New Delhi multiple times to request reconsideration of the decision. In these letters written after Operation Sindoor, Pakistan sought a review of the decision to suspend the IWT.
Pakistan maintains that India cannot unilaterally suspend the treaty, as this would violate the pact's provisions. Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Asif has declared that Islamabad will “defeat India in the water war,” framing the fallout from India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty as a new front in the countries’ long-standing hostilities. As per Asif, the flow of water in the Chenab River is significantly lower than it should be, suggesting deliberate actions by India to restrict Pakistan’s water rights. India was defeated in a conventional war, and now we will defeat it in the water war as well.
The Chenab River, with its rich history and geographical significance, remains a lifeline for millions in Pakistan. Whether through its ancient cultural references or modern infrastructure, it continues to shape the landscape and livelihoods of the regions it traverses. The potential loss of this lifeline evokes a sense of loss and concern among the people.
While India recently built and opened the world’s highest railway bridge, towering 359 meters above the river, Pakistan built Marala Headworks with India's financial assistance. It is a water management structure, meant for irrigation and flood control.
Signalling a hardening of Islamabad’s stance, Asif also declared the 1972 Simla Agreement “a dead document,” shifting Pakistan’s Kashmir position back to its original post-Partition line. Asif stated. “Going forward, these disputes will be dealt with multilaterally or internationally.” Pakistan intends to take the issue international, but it isn't very correct. Regardless of the fate of the problem, the severe water crisis would persist.
Pakistan has been reeling from reduced water flow in the Chenab River. For sixty years, it relied on India's water generosity and did little to harness, store and manage the water of the Indus and its tributaries. India had long underutilised its rightful share of water due to decades of neglect in infrastructure maintenance.
On the other hand, India has maintained its stance firmly so far. India "remains firm on its decision" and would not engage in discussions until Pakistan "credibly and irrevocably abjures cross-border terrorism."
Pakistan Water Crisis
#WaterCrisis #Pakistan #IndusBasin #Agriculture #Geopolitics #IndiaPakistan #EnvironmentalIssues
