Rail Users Shift to Air Travel

Travelers shift from Rail to Air.

The recent data presented by Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) shows that February is the fifth consecutive month where domestic passenger traffic grew over 20% on a year-on-year basis.

In February, Indian airlines flew 7.4 million passengers as against 6 million passengers in the corresponding month of the last year, indicating a jump of 24.7%. The firm trend in traffic and lower fuel prices are expected to support valuation of aviation stocks in the short and medium term.

The few factors which have contributed to the growth in air passenger traffic are -

• Airlines pass on the benefit of lower ATF prices to travelers.
  
• More number of flights are now available
• More regional air connectivity coming up
• Air fares are now affordable for the middle class 
• Rail fares have increased. The difference in fares of rail and airlines has now reduced for key routes like Mumbai-Delhi, Mumbai-Bengaluru, and Mumbai-Chennai.

It has been observed that the difference between the fares of rail (AC 2-tier) and air is in the range of Rs 700-800 on these key routes. Due to this, there has been a meaningful migration of travelers from rail to air.

National air carrier Air India said that it will introduce new flights on three sectors under its 'Connect India' program from April 1.

According to the airline, to push regional connectivity, its wholly-owned subsidiary -- Alliance Air will introduce the new flights on the 

• Delhi-Jammu, 
• Bengaluru-Vijayawada and 
• Kolkata-Agartala sectors .

The flights on the Bengaluru-Vijayawada and Kolkata-Agartala sectors will operate five days a week, starting from April 1.

Besides, it will operate an additional frequency on its existing route of Delhi-Jammu-Delhi three days a week, starting from April 7.

SpiceJet has been the country’s favourite low-cost carrier. As per the statistics released by DGCAIt continues to top the Passenger Load Factor (PLF) charts beating all Indian carriers with 92.3% PLF for the month of February 2016 leaving IndiGo a distant second. SpiceJet has achieved above 90% PLF for 10 successive months.

The airline has also bettered its On-time Performance (OTP) for the month of February 2016 with 77.7% as compared with 74.7% during January 2016. OTP has been computed for its operations across the four metro airports of Bangalore, Delhi, Hyderabad and Mumbai. SpiceJet operated 293 daily flights and carried 9.76 lakh passengers during the month thereby registering a market share of 13.1%. Shilpa Bhatia, Sr. VP, Commercial, SpiceJet, said, “This achievement is recognition of the faith and confidence our customers have reposed on us and at the same time reflects the commitment and persistent effort of entire SpiceJet staff.” Flight cancellations have also declined steadily over the past few months for the airline, with the cancellation rate for February 2016 being just 0.35%

Starting April 1, passengers flying IndiGo airlines on domestic routes will be forced to pay a charge of ₹2,250 for making any changes to their ticket or for cancelling it.

So far, the airline had a cancellation fee of ₹1,250 per ticket on domestic routes in case the changes or cancellation of the ticket is made at least a month before the travel. Within a month of travel, passengers were charged ₹2,250.

However, now irrespective of the time before travel, passengers will have to pay a fixed amount of ₹2,250 per ticket. International passengers will continue to pay ₹2,500 per ticket for cancellations.

This also makes cancellation more expensive than the ticket cost itself on many small routes. Airlines typically charge higher cancellation fee to discourage any changes made to travel plans, which allows them to plan their flights better and ensure better profitability.

Good News for Indian Aviation at Last !

The good news hasn’t ceased streaming in for India’s stressed aviation sector.

Union Civil Aviation Minister Ashok Gajapathi Raju has said that the new NationalCivil Aviation Policy is likely to be out next month. "At present, we are working on the policy. We have received many suggestions on the draft policy and we are hopeful that new policy will be out in April," Raju said.

He was speaking to reporters after addressing a private function at Machilipatnam on March 24, 2016. The minister said the country needs four modern airports, two on West coast and as many on East coast. Raju said that his ministry would consider proposals for new airports if governments concerned come forward to provide land to set up such facilities as land is the State subject.

If all that wasn’t good enough, a new study by industry body Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce (FICCI) and Industry and consultancy firm KPMG has  envisaged that India is going to become the world’s third largest aviation market by 2020 after the US and China. This is even better than the International Air Transport Association’s (IATA) prediction last year that India would be the third-largest market by 2026. 

“India is the ninth largest civil aviation market in the world with a market size of $16 billion and aims to become the 3rd largest market by 2020 and the largest by 2030,” the report said. “This is possible due to a host of factors, including increased competition, low-cost carriers, modern airports which are expanding, improved technology in both air side and city side operations, foreign direct investment and increased emphasis on regional connectivity.”

Trends of Growth

Between April 2015 and January 2016, the number of international passengers flying to and from India grew by 7.6%, while domestic passenger traffic was up 20.6%. By 2020, India’s airports are expected to carry as many as 369 million passengers compared to the current 190 million. As of today, just a little over 2% of Indians take to the skies. (See: Global Charm)

The huge potential has now forced global aircraft makers to woo Indian companies to buy more planes. According to Boeing and Airbus, the world’s two largest such firms, India is expected to order more than 1,600 aircraft over the next 20 years.

“India’s growth can help offset the slowdown in other parts of the world,” Dinesh Keskar, senior vice-president, Boeing, told Reuters on March 17. India’s largest airline by market share, IndiGo, has already finalised orders for 250 aircraft with Airbus, touted as the world’s largest-ever order by the number of planes. SpiceJet, another low-cost airline, is also in talks to buy some 100 aircraft.

Private Involvement

Till 1990s, India’s civil aviation industry was mainly a state-run affair. When the government decided to liberalise the aviation sector for private participation, several airlines came up. Some are enduring the business till today while some have collapsed.

Over the past 20 years or so, 17 airlines have been shut down – the most significant one being Kingfisher Airlines. Companies have lost a staggering Rs 60,000 crore during this period.

Much of this loss is largely attributed to the high cost of air turbine fuel (ATF), which is almost 60-70% more expensive in India than the global average price of ATF. “Since international ATF prices are low, at times an all-expense paid trip flight to Thailand or Malaysia turns out cheaper than flying within India. India’s distorted pricing policy on ATF has actually done more damage to Indian trade and tourism than good,” the report said.

“In 2005, there were four main carriers – Air India, Indian Airlines, Jet Airways and Air Sahara, all operating full-service models – plus several small airlines. By 2015, there were seven national air carriers – IndiGo, Jet Airways, Air India, SpiceJet, GoAir, Vistara and AirAsia India. In addition, regional carriers such as Air Costa, Air Pegasus and Trujet provide the much needed regional connectivity,” the report said.

In November 2015, IndiGo came up with the country’s biggest Initial Public Offering. (See: IndiGo) Simultaneously, the Narendra Modi government unveiled a new aviation policy that seeks to ease operations for airlines and lower the cost of flying.

After years of incurring losses, this year  India’s three big airlines are going to show operating profits. 

Surprise cheer. For the first time since 2007, the state-owned Air India will come out of the red and show some operating profits.

What will happen to Air India ?

While other airlines continued to prosper, Air India struggled. (See: AI). Air India has been incurring losses in millions every financial year. The government financially supports the airline. Air India has been able to survive only due to  the government’s financial aid package. Sometimes, it was unable to carry out maintenance due to cash crunch. (See: Air India unable)

“The government may consider selling some of its stake in loss-making national carrier Air India,” news agency NewsRise Financial has reported.

“The government plans to form a four-to-five member panel, made up of officials from the finance ministry, the civil aviation ministry, the cabinet secretariat and the company, to consider selling a stake in Air India to meet its revenue target from state asset sales next fiscal year, according to NewsRise.

Sources in the government, however, told that the government has not taken any such a decision so far. Sources in Air India said that the government will not sell its stake in Air India. The government is the sole owner and is implementing a turnaround plan for its financial revival. Air India was in the midst of a turnaround and any talk about privatisation and stake sale would be useful only when it started making profit.

Indebted Air India last made an annual profit almost a decade ago. Air India's market share has declined over the years in the face of competition from private airlines and according to latest data stands at 15.7 per cent, behind IndiGo and Jet Airways.

“The government will have to decide to divest 49 percent in the company as foreign airlines cannot pick up stake in an Indiancarrier”, said Kapil Kaul, CEO - South Asia, CAPA. He,

however, added while privatization of Air India -- whether it is 49 percent or 51 percent -- is a must even though he was doubtful it would be done. "After all, how long can you fight taxpayer money with private money," he said. Kaul added that now was a good time to prepare a roadmap for the national carrier's privatization given that it seems to be on track for posting profits.

Air India is in the process of evaluating several options to bring down the government's stake once it turns profitable. The national carrier expects to turn profitable in 2018-19, two years ahead of the original turnaround target of 2020-21 through better revenue generation and restructuring of the Rs 10,000-crore term loans with government guarantee backed non-convertible debentures.

One of the options being considered is conversion of debt into equity such that the government's stake comes down to 51 per cent. Aviation ministry officials said in every internal meeting of Air India, privatisation was discussed at length, though there is no clarity on how the airline plans to rope in private investors. Air India has total debt of around Rs 5,00,000 million.

State Bank of India is lead banker in the 26-member consortium to Air India and includes Punjab National Bank, Bank of Baroda and Central Bank of India.

According to sources, the lenders might be asked to exercise this option at a stage when the airline shows better performance. "There are several plans which include asking the banks to convert debt into equity but that will work out only when the airline is profitable," said one official. However, he said the plan was at a very nascent stage and nothing has been finalised.

Air India plans to reduce its losses by 40 per cent to Rs 2,000 crore in FY17 and a financial restructuring plan is underway to achieve this goal. Lower oil prices are helping the ailing carrier's turnaround plan. Earlier, half its routes were loss-making but in the April 2015 to January 2016 period, 75 per cent of routes have turned profitable.

In an interview to the media earlier, chairman and managing director Ashwani Lohani had said: "There is a huge backlog of past loans and we are servicing that debt. Even with all these loans, we are targeting a net profit by FY18."

When asked about the airline's privatisation plan, Lohani said that he believed in the strength of the public sector. “The company was in much better shape, thanks to soft crude oil prices and better operating mechanism. We are looking at consolidation. We are now looking at growth. We are now talking about more flights. We are talking about aggressive revenue management. To put it simply, there is an attempt to run Air India like a commercial organisation," he said.

However, the ministry has denied any proposal to offer its equity in Air India to banks in a debt-swap agreement. "No such move," Civil Aviation Secretary R N Choubey said, in a text message.

A committee headed by Rakesh Mohan, former deputy governor of the Reserve Bank of India, had recommended earlier that the government reduce its stake in AI to 26 per cent over five years.

The National Transport Development Policy Committee, set up in 2010, had termed AI's financial situation as precarious, It  had said that

• the airline would need to be recapitalised, 
• the company be restructured organisationaly, 
• its working capital debt burden be written off and 
• some divisions be made independent and corporatised.

A recent report jointly prepared by FICCI and KPMG had suggested that the government should sell its stake in Air India and use the Rs 30,000 crore that was earmarked for Air India to subsidise air travel of common man by lowering jet fuel price. The report claimed that the airline business requires split second operational decisions which is not possible in the government environment.

Regenerative Energy Gets a Boost

Team Quantum
Arif, Parul, Gaurav and Kuldeep

And finally team QUANTUM has WON the competition of "Innovation in Manufacturing Practices" at  IIT Kanpur and got a grand prize of Rs 50,000 !!!

Regenerative Energy Concept

A team of young enthusiasts, final year engineering students from a Jabalpur Engineering College have done it.

Even after being selected for jobs during campus interviews, the team chose not to pursue jobs. They chose to tread their own line, namely, Innovations in Engineering. The most natural choice of field being Regenerative Energy.

With little resource at their disposal Arif used the cylinder of his bike's engine to run a generator and light up his ambitions. No fuel, no pollution, no fatigue, just a little improvisation.

Team Quantum's work forms the nucleus of various applications in  Regenerative Energy, and it provides the interface between the actual generation of electric power and the working medium : Air.

World's Largest Aircraft: just a few weeks away from its maiden flight

See Video.

Source : Sky

The world finally developed the largest aircraft. It is a hybrid. An airship and an aeroplane combined. It  is only weeks away from its maiden flight, as per Sky News .

The Airlander 10 was originally developed for the US Army back in 2009, but re-imagined for commercial use when the project had been abandoned.

Unlike an airplane, the Airlander 10 :-

• does not need a runway and can land on most surfaces, including water.
• carry up to 10 tons, 
• transport 48 passengers and 
• fly continuously for five days at 80 knots (92mph), 

making it ideal to transport large amount of men and material to reach difficult places.

Blunder, Thy name is Budget 2016 !

Blunder, Thy name is Budget 2016 ! 

Particularly so in the context of Indian Civil Aviation.

The Civil Aviation Ministry mooted the idea of SCAs and Regional Connectivity Scheme (RCS) in its Draft Civil Aviation Policy (DCAP).

The Finance Minister Arun Jaitley came up with a proposal in Union Budget 2016-17: "The excise duty on aviation turbine fuel (ATF) be hiked to 14% from 8%, though not applicable to SCAs under the RCS."

The government had earlier reduced customs duty on crude oil imports to 0 from 5% in June 2011 when oil prices were over USD 100 per barrel. But with International oil prices slumping to 12-year low, hovering at USD 30 a barrel now, the government seems to be willing to earn more revenue in this way.

DCAP is not yet ready; the proposals for SCAs and the RCS are yet to be implemented.

So, the exemption clause for the SCAs under the RCS in the proposed excise duty hike of ATF does not make sense. Effectively, the increase will be applicable to all airlines using ATF operating from all airports. In short, all domestic flights, all air fares will be affected.

Earlier this month, oil companies had slashed ATF by a steep 12 per cent. Then, IOC, on the Budget day on February 29, had raised ATF prices in Delhi by Rs 4,174.49/kl to Rs 39,301.31/kl.

The real effect of excise duty hike on ATF will be worse because state sales tax is calculated over and above excise duty. The impact of it will be cumulative.  This is not very encouraging. State-level sales taxes vary between 4% and 30%. Currently, ATF prices vary from state to state depending on the Value Added Tax levied by them. It is also germane to note that the proposed subsidy to enhance the air connectivity will be offered only to those states that reduce value added tax on ATF to one per cent or less.

ATF in India is the costliest

Airlines have been lobbying for sales tax rationalisation for the past several years. ATF prices in India are already 60-70% costlier than global ATF prices. Even Ajay Singh of Spicejet presented this to the government before the Budget. But the government chose to boost its revenue prospects in this way. This will, in any case, have only incremental negative impact. Besides the excise duty hike, the finance minister has also increased service tax through the introduction of a new 0.5% Krishi Kalyan cess that will also add to airfares.

ATF accounts for more than 40% of an airline's total operating expenses. Experts say that the proposed increase in excise duty on ATF will make the raw material costlier by around 4-5% and so the overall cost for airlines may go up by four-five per cent. Hence, the airfares are likely to go up. However, this may not have a major impact on airlines’ profits as oil prices are down, passengers numbers in India keep increasing and so the airlines have the scope to pass it on to the hapless passenger. This is a time when air traffic in India has witnessed a big growth of over 20 per cent last year with domestic airlines carrying 81.2 million passengers. The airlines have benefited from cheaper aviation fuel, offered tickets at lower prices and attracted a lot of willing passengers. Airfares in 2015 were 15-20 per cent lower than the previous year. However, airlines will face more heat when oil prices begin to rise.

In a nutshell, costly ATF will result in increase in airfares and costly airfares will curb air passenger growth. It will go against the government's stated objective to make flying affordable for the masses.

Simultaneously, to give a boost to ‘Make in India’ programme, finance minister Arun Jaitley accepted a long pending demand by the industry to rationalise taxation on

maintenance, repairs and overhaul (MRO). With the number of aircraft in the Asia-Pacific fleet set to nearly triple by 2032, demand for MRO work is growing, and will continue to grow. The MRO industry in India is estimated to be worth $700 million. Jaitley announced sops include zero service tax on MRO, services, simplification of import processes for aircraft spares, exemption on customs duty for maintenance tools and tool kit and removal of the one year window restriction period for using duty free parts. Civil Aviation Minister Ashok Gajapathy had earlier said that the finance ministry has been sympathetic to the demand for tax relief to the MRO industry. The earlier tax regime meant that Indian MROs were 20-30% costlier than those abroad, leading even airlines here to repair their aircraft in foreign countries, including Sri Lanka and Singapore. “Reforms in MRO procedure, duty free period and free stay period are welcome but bigger relief in terms of zero rating of service tax and infrastructure status have been left out,” Amber Dubey, partner and head- aerospace and defence at global consultancy KPMG said.

The government is also keen to improve regional connectivity. Plans to build no-frills, low cost airports have already been envisaged in the DCAP. Finance minister Arun Jaitley allocated a sum of Rs 500 -1000 million to revive 160 non-functional airports and 10 of 25

defunct airstrips across the country. This will be developed in partnership with the state government. While the proposed move is expected to put 50 airports in operational mode in the first two years, the basic question is, given the political equations between Centre and the States; will the states be able to deliver as expected? This is exemplified by the failed instance of Andal in West Bengal. There could be many more such examples.

"Concessions cannot boost air traffic". "Sops cannot stimulate air traffic". 

Several aviation analysts endorse such views.

The government’s stated objective has been, “Make flying affordable for the masses.” To encourage the airlines to operate under RCS, the government attempts a number of things. It appends a needless clause to exempt from increased excise duty on ATF, removes service tax on tickets, and exempts travelers from paying passenger services fee, to enable short-haul air travel of a flying time of less than an hour at a fixed price of Rs 2,500. Though the intent is noble, the step is in the wrong direction. It is a typical example of government intervention in the market that should be resisted at all costs.

If it is found that the new RCS is operationally nonviable due to insufficient passenger numbers, if it is found that increased air fares are discouraging people to fly, then the various concessions being extended by the government in the form of tax rebates, incentives and other subsidies will become redundant, good for nothing.  It is a common business sense that airlines choose the flight sectors to operate on the basis of the sheer traffic potential and the need of the passenger. Irrespective of the price of the moment, the air ticket does get sold which indicates the intensity of importance a flier attaches to its need.

Without doubt, ATF is everything for aviation, the biggest cost in airline operations. The whole of aviation sector can survive without those so-called sops and concessions. But, it will be choked to death without ATF. The benefits of all those sops announced in Budget 2016 have been negated by a hike in excise duty on ATF which will eventually increase airfares and dishearten fliers. Aviation stocks are already reeling under pressure due to such excise duty imposition. Aviation stocks like InterGlobe Aviation, Jet Airways and SpiceJet fell 4-6 percent intra day on Budget day. Investors are scared. A hike in excise duty for ATF prices dampens market sentiments. Budget 2016, is aptly viewed as a Blunder.

In all fairness, the government should go ahead to rationalise the excise duty on ATF (across the board) for all domestic sectors, irrespective of the distance involved. There are a number of other ways and means to boost revenue. ATF could have been spared. A bold initiative would have been to reduce the ATF excise duty to 1% from 8%. This would have directly caused air fares to dip further. Passenger numbers would have soared, and the government would have been flooded with revenues while simultaneously fulfilling its chief objective :  “Make flying affordable for the masses.”

Dog Fight over the New Civil Aviation Policy Intensifies.

This is the middle of hectic lobbying. (See Lobbying) The fight is on. It is

Between

FIA - A federation of four of the country's biggest private airlines, IndiGo, Jet Airways, SpiceJet and GoAir which together control over 90 per cent of the industry. Chairman Rahul Bhatia of IndiGo.

AND

Non FIA - Vistara and AirAsia- in which Tata Sons owns substantial stake. Visible Face : Ratan Tata

FIA opposes strongly the draft aviation policy in its present form.

Areas of concern.

• ·         3 components of the draft policy-

o   The proposed abolition of the 5/20 rule, auctioning of bilateral rights and lifting the foreign ownership cap on domestic airlines above 49 per cent.

o   The biggest beneficiaries from the proposed changes are likely to be only two new airlines- Vistara and AirAsia.

o   Substantial ownership and effective control norms were being flouted by the foreign partners of new airlines Vistara and AirAsia.  Arun Bhatia, co-founder of Air Asia had earlier threatened to go to court on grounds that it is remote controlled by Malaysian shareholders.

• ·         The policy is being finalised without taking FIA’s concerns into account.
• ·         Irked by the ministry's persistent refusal to allow them to present their views about the policy.
• ·       The 5/20 Rule

o   the policy has suggested doing away with the 5/20 rule

o   replacing with a credit-based system

o   Any decision on 5/20 rule must be taken in tandem with the Route Development Guidelines and not as an independent entity.

o   "If 5/20 is abolished, route dispersal guidelines should go too. By merely abolishing the 5/20 rule and keeping the route development guidelines intact, the government will completely tilt the balance in favour of airlines which are effectively controlled from abroad." : Ajay Singh of Spicejet.

o   "While an IndiGo with more than 100 aircraft cannot restructure its network by withdrawing from any unprofitable routes, an airline with just five aircraft can fly abroad with the sixth one - this is not acceptable,":  Aditya Ghosh of  Indigo.

• ·         "The proposed changes are regressive and would harm Indian aviation." : Wolfgang Prock-Schauer of GoAir
• ·         Any move to auction bilateral rights which will put them at a disadvantage and lead to unfair competition with airlines from Gulf or the European Union which have deep pockets.
• ·         "Every country, including the US and Singapore, zealously guards its bilateral traffic rights. With auctioning of these, India will put its airlines at a disadvantage." : Ajay Singh of Spicejet. Gulf carriers like Etihad and Emirates have already increased their footprint manifold after the previous government gave greater freedom to them - a move that was criticised by the Comptroller and Auditor General in its audit report.

Battle Lines being drawn.

FIA in its submission to the civil aviation ministry has added a copy from Justice Srikrishna who has suggested the changes as violation of constitutional rights. "In my opinion, if the draft policy is implemented in its present form. One would be entitled to challenge the same ground of hostile discrimination and infringement of their fundamental right by way of appropriate proceedings before a court," Justice Srikrishna wrote.

Rahul Bhatia, has informed media that a legal recourse would be a possible option. "We don't want legal battles but if the ministry is not ready to listen to us, what's the option? We just want a level-playing field," he said. Responding to former Tata Group Chairman Ratan Tata's statement that older airlines were resisting changes in fear of competition, Bhatia wondered why Tata, known for his wisdom, had become so vocal on an issue where he had a vested interest. The biggest beneficiaries from the proposed changes are likely to be Vistara and AirAsia in which Tata Sons owns substantial stake.

Global Charm of Indian Aviation: courtesy Indian Middle Class.

Indian budget carrier Indigo, India's biggest and most profitable airline, has ordered 250 new A320neo jets, claimed to be more fuel efficient aircraft from the European Aircraft manufacturer, Airbus in August 2015.

The deal is a colossal boost for Airbus, which says that the IndiGo order is its largest ever by number of planes. The order would be worth $26 billion at list prices and taking into account significant discounts to such large airline customers. "It fills us with pride that IndiGo, India's largest airline and one of the early launch customers for the A320neo, is coming back for more of our benchmark aircraft," Airbus sales chief John Leahy has said in a statement. "This order confirms the A320 Family as the airliner of choice in the most dynamic aviation growth markets." Deals with IndiGo have helped extend Airbus's lead against arch-rival Boeing in orders for the fast-growing upgraded narrow-body aircraft segment. Airbus' A320neo – an upgraded next-generation model of its A320 – competes against Boeing's similarly updated version of its 737, the 737 MAX.

The order confirms IndiGo as one of the world's largest operators of Airbus' A320 family of narrow-body jets. Earlier, in January 2011, IndiGo had ordered 180 planes worth $15 billion from Airbus at the time the biggest order in commercial aviation history. IndiGo’s goal has been 1,000-jet fleet.

Also Read : IndiGo in 100-aircraft club, Spicejet plans 150

At the Dubai Airshow in November 2015, U.S. aircraft manufacturer Boeing had announced that Jet Airways, part owned by Etihad Airways, had agreed to an $8 billion deal to buy 75 Boeing 737 aircraft. Jet Airways will start taking delivery of the planes from mid-2018.

Airbus has now secured 4,100 orders for its A320neo family of jets while Boeing's tally for its 737 MAX stands at about 2,830. The purchases are in line with Boeing's forecast released in August 2015 that it expects demand for 1,740 planes in India over the next 20 years, at an estimated price of $240 billion. Most of these planes will be for fleet expansion and replacement of aged aircraft.

Also See : Airbus or Boeing: Whosoever Delivers early, wins Spicejet's Order

IndiGo, Spicejet and Jet Airways have become so capable today that they shop for planes worth billions of USD. Can it not be concluded that they are able to do so because of the sheer strength of Indian Middle Class?

 

The Hindu's Survey on Indian Middle Class

Middle class buying power

India’s aviation industry's rapid growth is actually attributed to the need of the millions of Indian Middle Class who has to travel across the length and breadth of the country for one reason or the other. Be it job, education, medical treatment, business or just a vacation. The demand for air travel continues to grow, and the root-cause of it is the need.  To fly has indeed become the compelling choice as compared with lengthy modes of ground travel. More and more airlines have started flights to tier 2 and tier 3 cities. Moreover, the competition between the airlines results in cheaper tickets which makes relatively easier for the Middle Class mass to afford.

Also Read : Something has changed for the better

Earlier, a year ago, airlines in India were in misery. Apart from various other problems, vicious fare wars among themselves had pushed many air carriers in the red. Experts say that the problems with the aviation sector initially appeared big, but despite major obstacles like burdensome Rules and Regulations, high jet fuel prices, lack of aircraft maintenance infrastructure, and choked airports; explosion in air travel business in India during the past decade did happen. The recent fall in oil prices helped matters, but the effect of growing Middle Class of India has simply been overwhelming. It is there for everyone to see and realise. The size and potential of the Indian Middle Class, constituting the bulk of the Indian aviation market, is so huge that it has compensated most of the faults in the system. 

As a result, India is set to become the third largest aviation market by 2020. “Air travel in India will continue to grow at double digits for the next 10 to 15 years," said Kapil Kaul, regional head of the Aviation consultancy firm Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation (CAPA). It expects domestic passenger traffic to touch 100 million passengers by 2016-17.  Airlines carried 81 million in 2015, up from 15.7 million in 2003-04 when India’s first low-cost airline, Air Deccan, was launched. Domestic air passengers are expected to jump from the current 70 million to 300 million by 2022, and to 500 million by 2027. Where do these numbers come from? These are basically an integral part of 1.2 billion strong population, India’s greatest asset to date. (See IATA). New International players do see these numbers. They find it irresistible and continue to be drawn into the system and be a part of Indian Economy, in general, and Indian Aviation, in particular, despite all the conceived drawbacks.

One natural way to become a part is Equity Participation. Today, the picture is so rosy that airlines in the Middle-East are keen to join Spicejet, IndiGo and Jet Airways. The government, too, has eased FDI norms. 

Several other aviation entities of the world are influenced by the Indian Aviation market. As mentioned in the beginning, Indian players have kept airplane producers Boeing & Airbus, their associated equipment manufacturers, dealers, and MROs busy who are spread across the world. If you take away those orders, Airbus and Boeing might begin staring into bankruptcy! (See Airbus couldn't control)

This, precisely, is the global charm of Indian Aviation.

A fast-growing economy and an expanding middle class have made India the world's fastest growing air travel market. The number of passengers keeps growing impressively and airlines are announcing flights to new destinations almost every week. The 2015-16 fiscal has been the best fiscal for Indian aviation. The fall in crude oil prices slashed the cost of aviation turbine fuel (ATF), which accounts for 40-50% of operating costs for domestic airlines. ATF prices have been nearly halved since July 2014 and fallen about a quarter over the past 12 months. However, aviation experts feel that the ATF prices are still higher, because of very high VAT, imposed by State governments, which should have come down consequent upon the reduction in oil prices. They feel that the rates must be slashed to 4% by all States. They say that in the past, socialist-leaning politicians regarded travelling by an aeroplane as a extravagance and not as a vehicle of economic and social growth. This tag ensured castigatory taxes on jet fuel air travel related products and services. As a result, ATF in India became almost 60% costlier than in Singapore or Dubai, both hub of busy aviation activities. Spicejet's Ajay Singh has already pointed out to India's Finance Minister Arun Jaitley : “The cost of Aviation Turbine Fuel (ATF) in India is amongst the highest in the world. ATF costs, on average, 55% more than leading aviation markets. India is ATF Surplus. India produces approx. 11.50 million metric tons of ATF per annum whereas the annual consumption is only about 5.50 million metric tons. Yet, we follow an ‘Import Parity Pricing’ mechanism.”

Reduction in oil prices enabled airlines to reduce fares, and to introduce several offers which in turn increased air traffic.

Passenger traffic continues to grow in double digits in 2016 as well with January witnessing a 22.58% surge in number of passengers as compared to the same month last year due to lower fares being offered by airlines as a result of lower operating costs. Passengers carried by domestic airlines during Jan 2016 were 7.655 million as against 6.245 million during the corresponding period of previous year as per the data produced by the aviation regulator in India, the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA). Out of a 1.2 billion population, only about 70 million Indians fly on domestic routes in a year, just a quarter of the size of air travel in China which has a similar population.

IndiGo maintained its leadership position in January 2016. In terms of the number of passengers flown during the month, the market shares were as follows:

IndiGo's performance boosts confidence

1. 35.6 % : IndiGo

2. 21.4 % : Jet Airways 

3. 16%      : Air India

4. 13.2%   : Spicejet 

5. 8.1%     : GoAir’s

6. 5.1%     : AirAsia + Vistara + Air Costa 

7. 0.4%     : TruJet: 

8. 0.3%     : Air Pegasus : 

Without doubt, India’s civil Aviation is dominated by the top 5: IndiGo, Jet Airways, Air India Ltd, SpiceJet Ltd and GoAir. At the same time, 3 year old airlines are also making their presence felt. They too have a market share. Today they operate modest fleets. The market shares of new airlines – AirAsia, Vistara, Air Costa - in January this year, doubled- up from just 2.5% a year ago. Earlier, the market share of IndiGo was 36.4%, Air India’s 18.7%, Jet Airways’ 23.2% and GoAir’s 8.9%.

Also Read : 2015 saw a few Highs and several Lows

SpiceJet was the only airline out of the established players which was able to increase its market share, from 9.4% to 13.2%. Its story resembles a miracle. The airline, which nearly collapsed in December 2014 due to a cash crunch and grounding of its planes, began to recover only after a new promoter Ajay Singh took over early in 2015. The change in management in early 2015, combined with complimentary flying economics, rejuvenated Spicejet. From a loss of over Rs 7000 million in the nine months ended December 2014, the airline posted a profit of Rs 3340 million in the April–December 2015 period. This was despite its revenue reducing about 19 per cent due to a smaller fleet and lower ticket prices.

Former Jet Airways chief executive Steve Forte said new airlines have been able to corner quick market share as a result of better mar rejuvenated conditions. “This is the normal effect of increased competition and, due to a dramatic drop in fuel costs, more flexibility in the pricing strategies. What the established carriers have as an advantage is the international networks and prime airport slots. Eventually, if the new comers go international, it may turn out to be substantial problems for the higher-cost carriers as they might not be able to match the competition,” he said.

Vistara, though had the lowest occupancy as shown in Load Factor figures - indicating the fraction of seats booked. :

1. SpiceJet : 92.1% 

2. GoAir : 84.9% 

3. IndiGo : 84.7% 

4. Air Costa : 84% 

5. Jet Airways : 82.5% 

6. TruJet : 83.4% 

7. AirAsia : 81.9% 

8. Vistara : 74.8%.

The aviation watchdog DGCA also highlighted that the passenger load factor in the month of January 2016 has slightly decreased compared to previous month.

But Vistara was the most punctual of all airlines. On-time performance:

1. Vistara : 86.6% 

2. Jet Airways and JetLite : 75.4% and

3. IndiGo : 75% 

The overall cancellation rate of scheduled domestic airlines for the month of January 2016 has been 1.10%.

During January 2016, a total of 823 passenger related complaints had been received by the scheduled domestic airlines, says DGCA data. Poor customer service, baggage and flight problems formed the biggest chunk of complaints DGCA received from customers, the data showed

As expected, the airline stocks stayed firm on the bourses last year, despite the broader market being weak. Low costs and improving traffic numbers reflected in the financial performance of all the three listed airlines — Jet Airways, SpiceJet and InterGlobe Aviation (IndiGo), which made a remarkable debut on the bourses in November 2015. Jet Airways and SpiceJet have been profitable in the three quarters so far in 2015-16 and are set to end the fiscal on a high note, after many years of heavy losses. Jet Airways swung to a profit of Rs 7760 million in the same period from a loss of about Rs 850 million in the corresponding period a year ago. IndiGo bolstered its record of being consistently profitable.  It almost doubled its profit year-on-year to more than Rs 14,000 million for the nine months ended December 2015.

The SpiceJet stock increased by more than 4 times - from less than Rs 20 last year to Rs 90 this year, before giving up some gains earlier this month. Still, it is at more than 3 times the price a year ago.

Jet Airways too soared more than 65 per cent before paring gains; it is now up about 31 per cent from the previous year.

(See from 765) IndiGo, after a successful IPO, rose more than 50% in less than 3 months. Delay in A320neo delivery and lower-than-expected September quarter performance — disclosed in the 3rd quarter results — saw the stock crash over the past month. It fell below its IPO price, Rs 765, before recouping some losses. The stock is now up about 11 per cent from its issue price.